Unsure future for one driver

Joey Logano needs to have a big 2012 season or he is likely out at Joe Gibbs Racing.

When Joey Logano entered the Sprint Cup series in 2009, hopes were high that he would become one of the next superstars of NASCAR.

Three years later, he has proven to be the NASCAR equivalent of an NFL draft bust. In fact, if it hadn't of been for that rainy day in New Hampshire, he wouldn't even have a Cup win to this point. With teammates Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch being perennial Chase contenders each year and 2012 being a contract year for Logano, the writing is beginning to appear on the wall.

Since taking over the famous Home Depot No. 20, Logano has had an average finish of 19.1 for his entire career. He is coming off of a dismal 2011 in which he finished 24th in points.

Logano needs a massive year in 2012, or he will more than likely be shown the door.

Joe Gibbs Racing has made it no secret that they wanted Carl Edwards last season. If Edwards had gone to JGR, it would've meant that Logano was either headed to a fourth start-up team or would've been out completely, depending on the sponsorship demands.

Regardless, Logano's tenure in the No. 20 would have come to an end.

There are no big superstar-caliber drivers on the market right now. However, if Kurt Busch can keep his act together during his one-year deal at Phoenix Racing and Logano has another disappointing season, discussions will open up about Kurt's 2013 plans.

It makes sense to replace a struggling Logano with a past champion like Busch, especially since the Busch brothers have already teamed up on Kyle's Nationwide team.

If Kurt truly is the changed man he seems to be, JGR will be looking to sign him.

If Kurt does indeed take over the No. 20 Home Depot Toyota in 2013, it sets up an interesting, and possibly very profitable scenario for Joe Gibbs Racing, The Home Depot, and Kurt himself.

The Home Depot happens to have a very big rivalry with Lowe's as they are both two of the largest home improvement chains in America.

Lowe's sponsors Jimmie Johnson. Most NASCAR fans should know by now of the personal rivalry that exists between Busch and Johnson. Busch driving for The Home Depot sets up a perfect driver vs. driver and sponsor vs. sponsor rivalry.

So what does all this mean for Logano? Where does he fit in the future of JGR?

Well for the moment, he still has his ride and a new crew chief along with it. That being said, if Logano has a similar year to 2011, his best-case scenario would be running a fourth car part-time with limited sponsorship.

Logano needs to prove that he is worth more on the track than a driver like Kurt Busch, which is a monstrous task. He needs to win at least two races this season, and missing the chase again is not an option at this point.

Logano has his work cut out for him, and it's time to see if he can truly live up to the expectations that have followed him his entire career.